Our Views

Winning by not losing

What an ‘interesting’ week it has been in the world of politics and what an ‘interesting’ week still to come.

As I write (well re-write to be honest, a lot changes in 24hrs!) it would appear that we are no nearer a conclusion to Brexit than we were a week ago and there seems little hope of a resolution this side of Christmas.

If we are to believe the press, the commentators, and analysts, we could confidently say everything and nothing will happen all at the same time. The truth is no-one knows or can know how this will conclude come March 29th 2019.

As I see it there are 5 possible outcomes:

  1. Renegotiate the current deal so it can pass through parliament
  2. Accept there is no deal to be had and proceed with a No-Deal Brexit
  3. A Second Referendum or People’s Choice on the options
  4. A General Election
  5. Vote of no confidence in the Government

But even then the uncertainty grows and we are left with a problem as investors.

Markets do not like uncertainty

During a meeting last week with a portfolio manager we were discussing the various options and outcomes and how best you go about navigating them.

The conclusion? 

Winning by not losing

Let me explain, the portfolios Juniper Wealth Management uses are all extremely well diversified. Not all of our eggs are in one basket so to speak. They are well diversified at every level. By asset class and type, by investment manager style, by geographic location and currency and many more.

Long term view

We take a long term view to investing. We know that the next few months could be choppy but the volatility we will experience over this period will have little impact on long term returns of the portfolios. It will not be comfortable for some of us but now is not the time for panic.

Time in the market not timing the market

There is a temptation to try and get clever when we see volatility. To sell out and buy back in when the world looks calmer.

Invariably this doesn’t work and we run the risk of missing out on significant amount of returns. Just missing out on the best 10 days of investment returns can have a significant impact on our investment returns.

Image result for FTSE All-Share Index

Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Source: Vanguard FactSet as at 31 December 2016.

By focusing on not losing money over the coming months the portfolio managers we recommend will be in a stronger position to make money when the outcome on Brexit does become clear. 

Heads, hearts and hands

When discussing these things abstractly it can easy to see the logic and facts and our heads win out. 

But when it is not markets and equities but is instead hopes and dreams that are experiencing volatility this comes much harder. At Juniper Wealth we work very hard to understand what your investments are for and how they fit with your plan. So we also understand when worries or concerns affect your hearts.

If you are at all concerned drop us a line or schedule a meeting and we will be very happy to talk through in more detail the steps we are taking to ensure your plan is protected through this uncertain time.

Jon DoyleWinning by not losing